Muktar Usman Muktari-Janguza (JanguzaArewa)

The strongest steel is forged in the hottest fire. The APC’s defection crisis is also an opportunity waiting to be seized. APC campaign billboard. Photo Credit: Reuters Soon after coming to power in the historic 2015 elections, the All Progressive Congress' (APC) political compass was already pointing to a gathering storm. In an April 2016 article titled ‘Nigeria’s ruling party at war with itself’, Premium Times painted a portrait of an APC that was paralysed by multiple internal crises: tensions arising from Bukola Saraki and Yakubu Dogara’s emergence as Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives, respectively, against the wishes of party leaders; divisions over top party positions; and a fracturing of the party, stemming from power struggles and personality clashes, in various states.  In December 2016, then-National Chairman John Odigie-Oyegun publicly acknowledged for the first time that the party’s internal divisions were affecting “the mo...

This article was first published on ' African Arguments Online ' on 21 July 2015 President Muhammadu Buhari with the President of Chad, Idris Deby, during a Press Conference at the State House in N’djamena, Chad. 4 June 2015. Photo Credit: frontiersnews.com The ‘ concentric circle ‘ model which frames how Nigeria’s foreign policy thinkers view our region places the country exclusively in West Africa. Consequently West Africa has traditionally been the main focus of the country’s regional diplomacy. West Africa also remains the arena of Nigeria’s boldest and most celebrated diplomatic initiatives to date – the establishment of ECOWAS in 1975 and the ECOMOG interventions of the 1990s. I think this view of our broader region which situates Nigeria on the eastern edges of West Africa is incomplete. Instead our strategic thinkers should embrace the country’s natural identity as a potential pivotal power situated at a crossroad between multiple regions, and an a...

How accurate is the widespread perception that Nigeria and France remain locked in an adversarial rivalry in West Africa? President Muhammadu Buhari and President Francois Hollande meet on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany. Photo Credit: Getty Images/AFP. Reading Bassey and Dokubo’s monumental tome, Defence Policy of Nigeria: Capability and Context , one gets the impression that for Nigeria’s foreign policy elites France remains a formidable obstacle to the country’s regional ambition and an enduring threat to national security. As the authors observe:  The pervasive and tenacious involvement of France in West-Central Africa has been widely seen by Nigerian defence planners as constituting a direct affront to its national security and also impeding the growth of the country’s political, economic and cultural interests in the region. France’s politico-military presence all across West-Central Africa, the authors unequivocally conclude, means the...

From Left: Chief Of Air Staff, Avm Sadique Abubakar; Chief Of Naval Staff, Rear Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Iba; Chief Of Defence Staff, Maj.-Gen. Abayomi Olonisakin; Chief Of Defence Intelligence, Avm Morgan Riku And The National Security Adviser (NSA), Retired Maj.-Gen. Babagana Monguno. During their meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari at the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Monday 13 July 2015. Image and caption: Premium Times. On Monday, President Buhari sacked his Service Chiefs, Chief of Defence Intelligence and National Security Adviser. A widely expected and long overdue decision. The new individuals are: National Security Adviser (NSA): Major General Babagana Monguno (rtd.). He is from Borno state. He was the Commandant, Nigerian Army Training and Doctrine Command, before his retirement from active service in September 2013. Major General Monguno (rtd.) replaces Colonel Sambo Dasuki (rtd.). Chief of Defence Staff (CDS): Major General Abayomi Gabriel Olonishakin....

Image: BBC On Saturday, 7 th of January, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that after careful deliberation it was acceding to the demands of the National Security Adviser (NSA) and the Service Chiefs to postpone the General Elections for six weeks. The new dates the Commission’s Chairman announced were now to be March 28 (Presidential and Federal Legislative elections) and April 11 (Gubernatorial and State Legislative elections). Much has already been written about the wide-spread suspicion which has greeted the postponement. Remi Adekoya’s article in The Guardian , Karen Attiah’s article in The Washington Post , and Tolu Ogunlesi’s article in the Financial Times , give a good sense of this general scepticism – much of which I share. In this article I instead highlight the implications and impact of the postponement on the country’s economic stability.  Stability Deferred The ebullient glow that once pe...

The Lesson of History and the Influence of Geography Chadian soldiers gathered near the Nigerian town of Gamboru after retaking the town, 1 February 2015. ( AFP ) On Thursday morning, January the 29 th , news broke that Chadian forces, with the tacit consent of the Nigerian government, had crossed the international frontier and recaptured Malam Fatori – a north-eastern Nigerian town that had been captured by Boko Haram in October last year. This was a watershed moment. For the first time in Nigeria’s 54 years as an independent country, foreign troops are conducting major military operations inside the country. Similarly, with Chad’s intervention, the war against Boko Haram has entered a new phase; and possibly presages a wider regional intervention – the balance sheet of which can only be properly assessed in the fullness of time. So why did Idriss Deby send Chadian troops into Nigeria? How are we to make sense of this bold gambit? N’Djamena’s Paramount Ruler: Th...