Showing posts from February, 2015

The Economic Impact of the Postponement: Stability Deferred

On Saturday, 7th of January, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that after careful deliberation it was acceding to the demands of the National Security Adviser (NSA) and the Service Chiefs to postpone the General Elections for six weeks. The new dates the Commission’s Chairman announced were now to be March 28 (Presidential and Federal Legislative elections) and April 11 (Gubernatorial and State Legislative elections). Much has already been written about the wide-spread suspicion which has greeted the postponement. Remi Adekoya’s article in The Guardian, Karen Attiah’s article in The Washington Post, and Tolu Ogunlesi’s article in the Financial Times, give a good sense of this general scepticism – much of which I share.

In this article I instead highlight the implications and impact of the postponement on the country’s economic stability. 
Stability Deferred
The ebullient glow that once permeated perceptions of Nigeria’s economic health has given way to an und…

Understanding Chad's Intervention in Nigeria

The Lesson of History and the Influence of GeographyOn Thursday morning, January the 29th, news broke that Chadian forces, with the tacit consent of the Nigerian government, had crossed the international frontier and recaptured Malam Fatori – a north-eastern Nigerian town that had been captured by Boko Haram in October last year. This was a watershed moment. For the first time in Nigeria’s 54 years as an independent country, foreign troops are conducting major military operations inside the country. Similarly, with Chad’s intervention, the war against Boko Haram has entered a new phase; and possibly presages a wider regional intervention – the balance sheet of which can only be properly assessed in the fullness of time. So why did Idriss Deby send Chadian troops into Nigeria? How are we to make sense of this bold gambit? N’Djamena’s Paramount Ruler: The Enduring Quest for Security
The desire for security often drives state behaviour in international politics. For autocratic states like …